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Is a Fourth COVID-19 Wave Impending? An Analysis!

COVID-19

COVID-19 cases continue to rise each week, giving a scare of an impending fourth wave! A longer deadly phase was last seen during the second wave, where cases increased drastically for 12 weeks simultaneously. In the third wave, too, cases increased for three weeks in a row. However, the cases in the current situation are comparatively low and not likely to be called a ‘wave’. There have been fluctuations of cases in COVID-19 cases across states, with one week recording a fall and the next a rise in cases.

COVID-19 Data and Analytics

According to data released by the Union Health Ministry on Saturday (July 16), the country saw 18,301 discharges in the last 24 hours, bringing the total recovery rate to around 98.48% and total recoveries to 4,30,63,651.

According to data from the health ministry released today, the number of active COVID-19 cases in India has risen to 1,40,760. The number of active cases registered yesterday was 1,39,073. In the last 24 hours, the active COVID-19 caseload has increased by 1,687. According to the ministry, active cases account for 0.32% of total infections.

The country’s total death toll is now 5,25,660. The first death from the COVID pandemic was reported in India in March 2020. On July 16, the daily positivity rate was 4.80%.

In the previous week, India reported an average of 18,545 cases per day. Cases have increased by 16% compared to the previous two weeks. Deaths have increased by 47%. Since the outbreak, at least one in every 31 residents has been infected for 43,750,599 reported cases. The COVID-19 virus has killed at least one in every 2,599 residents, for a total of 525,709 deaths.

May 2021 had the highest average number of cases and deaths in India. The official Covid-19 figures in India vastly underestimate the true scope of the pandemic.

The Omicron Variant!

An Omicron sub-variant rapidly spreading in India and has been found in several European countries may be more effective than other COVID-19 strains at overcoming immunity from prior infection and vaccines.

BA.2.75, dubbed Centaurus, appeared to have mutated in a way that could indicate “major immune escape,” according to World Health Organization chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan, who also noted that it demonstrated a “clear growth advantage” over other variants in India. When the highly mutated Omicron variant emerged late last year, global health authorities issued a similar warning.

The variant was discovered in India, and the nickname Centaurus quickly spread on Twitter. Global health authorities did not influence the provision of a name. The WHO, which oversees the process, chose Omicron as the name for the sub-variant and would not provide another.

The strain’s spread coincides with a resurgence of the pandemic, which is largely fueled by the BA.5 Omicron sub-variant. The WHO reported an “increase in trend” in case reports over the past week, which it described as “concerning” given the decrease in global COVID-19 testing.

Second Booster Immunization

European health officials recommended that those over the age of 60 and those with compromised immune systems be eligible for second boosters this week. US authorities had previously issued a similar call.

Governments have also made second boosters available to a larger proportion of their populations before Omicron-variant vaccines become available later this year. EU US regulators have supported using Omicron-variant vaccines because it appears that COVID-19 will continue to evolve.

Current vaccines are based on the COVID-19 strain that first appeared in Wuhan, China, more than two years ago.

They continue to provide high levels of protection against severe disease, but their effectiveness is waning as time passes since the first rounds of vaccinations and the virus evolves.

WHO compared the protection provided by vaccines against Covid to a castle wall. “It weakens, cracks, and there are holes in the wall,” he explained, adding that immunological memory “fades over time.”

Even though new Covid variants have emerged, the situation at present is not as serious as it was two years ago. The gravity of the infection is multiplying rather than causing a major health downturn like it was two years ago.

Yet, few schools and colleges have been shut in the country after the fourth wave of COVID-19 has gripped India. The state governments of the particular states have asked people to maintain the standard protocols to be followed while Covid cases re-emerged.

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