According to an industry forecast released Monday, inflation, supply chain issues, and ongoing Covid-19 lockdowns in China are among the factors conspiring to delay a full recovery in business travel to pre-pandemic levels.
The Global Business Travel Association now predicts that business travel will reach $1.43 trillion in mid-2026, 18 months later than predicted in the group’s previous forecast in November.
“Recovery has hit some headwinds,” GBTA said in a statement that outlined a gradual improvement from a 2020 low of $661 billion until reaching $1.47 trillion in 2026.”
“The factors impacting many industries around the world are also anticipated to impact global business travel recovery into 2025,” said Suzanne Neufang, the association’s chief executive.”
The Omicron variant of Covid-19 “short-circuited” recovery in late 2021 and early 2022, according to the group, but trips increased after that as Covid cases fell.
High energy prices, labour shortages, Covid lockdowns, regional effects of the Ukraine war, and concerns about sustainability are all major impediments to a full recovery.