As the world population surpassed 8 billion on Tuesday, India was the largest contributor, adding 177 million people, while China’s contribution to the next billion is expected to be negative, according to the UN.
By next year, India is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country.
In a special graphic to commemorate the global population reaching eight billion, the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) stated that Asia and Africa have driven much of this growth and are expected to drive the next billion by 2037, while Europe’s contribution will be negative due to declining population.
In the last 12 years, the world’s population has increased by one billion people. According to UNFPA, as the world adds the next billion people to its population, China’s contribution will be negative.
“India, the largest contributor to the 8 billion (177 million) will surpass China, which was the second largest contributor (73 million) and whose contribution to the next billion will be negative, as the world’s most populous nation by 2023,” according to UNFPA.
According to the UN, the world population increased from 7 to 8 billion in about 12 years, but the next billion is expected to take about 14.5 years (2037), reflecting the slowdown in global growth.
The global population is expected to peak at around 10.4 billion people in the 2080s and then remain stable until 2100.
Around 70% of the additional population in the increase from 7 to 8 billion was in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.
According to the UN, these two groups of countries will account for more than 90% of global growth as the population grows from 8 to 9 billion.
According to the report, between now and 2050, the global increase in the population under the age of 65 will be entirely in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, with population growth in high-income and upper-middle-income countries occurring only among those aged 65 and up.
According to the World Population Prospects 2022 report, India’s population will be 1.412 billion in 2022, compared to China’s 1.426 billion.
India’s population is expected to reach 1.668 billion in 2050, surpassing China’s 1.317 billion by the middle of the century.
According to UNFPA estimates, in 2022, 68% of India’s population will be between the ages of 15 and 64, with people aged 65 and older constituting 7% of the population.
According to the report, the global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, and will fall below 1% in 2020.
The global population could reach 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050.
According to the report, China’s population will begin to decline in absolute terms as early as 2023.
Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin stated at the report’s launch in July that countries where population growth has slowed must prepare for an increasing proportion of older people and, in extreme cases, a decreasing population size.
“China provides a clear example. With the rapid ageing of its population due to the combined effects of very low fertility and increasing life expectancy, growth of China’s total population is slowing down, a trend that is likely to continue in the coming decades,” Liu said.
According to the WHO, China has one of the world’s fastest growing ageing populations.
“The population of people over 60 years in China is projected to reach 28 per cent by 2040, due to longer life expectancy and declining fertility rates,” according to the WHO.
By 2019, China had 254 million older people aged 60 and up, and 176 million older people aged 65 and up.
Eastern and South-Eastern Asia with 2.3 billion people (29 percent of the global population) and Central and Southern Asia with 2.1 billion people were the two most populous regions in 2022. (26 per cent).
With over 1.4 billion people each, China and India accounted for the majority of the population in these two regions.
More than half of the projected global population increase between now and 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United Republic of Tanzania.
Sub-Saharan African countries are expected to contribute more than half of the increase expected through 2050, according to the report.