According to census data, South Korea broke its own record for the world’s lowest total fertility rate last year, and analysts predict it will fall even further this year, raising concerns about the country’s declining and ageing population.
After steadily declining from 4.53 in 1970, the first year the government began compiling such data, the total fertility rate began to fall more quickly in the 2000s during financial crises, dropping below 1.0 in 2018 as housing, child care, and education costs rose, jobs become scarcer, and young people became more concerned about their future.
According to Statistics Korea, the national statistics agency, the fertility rate — the average number of children born to a woman during her reproductive years — fell for the sixth consecutive year to 0.81 in 2021. Experts predict that it will fall below 0.8 this year as rising housing prices prevent individuals from having children.
In comparison, the fertility rate in the United States was 1.66 and in Japan it was 1.37. To maintain the same population size without migration, a fertility rate of 2.1 is required.
“How difficult must people find it to get married, give birth and raise children for this number to be so low?” asked Lee Samsik, a policy professor at Hanyang University in Seoul. “If we take this as a compressed measure of basic life, it’s a troublesome figure.”
The consequences of South Korea’s low fertility rate are already being felt throughout the country. In the last two years, the population has declined. Schools have encountered student shortages, the military has expanded eligibility standards for conscripts, and the falling number of working-age individuals jeopardises retiree pensions.
Although the administration has been aware of the country’s demographic crisis for some time, policy experts argue it has failed to adequately address it. According to Professor Lee, the government should invest much more resources in child care, increase career prospects for young adults, make housing more affordable, and stimulate immigration.
The spectre of a diminishing labour supply has propelled South Korea to the forefront of workplace robotics and artificial intelligence development. The Justice Ministry has also stated that it will establish a bureau to encourage immigration in a country that has historically had little of it.
However, without widespread intervention, South Korea might face a severe labour shortage by the mid-2030s, and the population could fall dramatically within three or four generations, according to Lee Sang-lim, a demographer at the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs.
“Life isn’t going well for a lot of young people,” he remarked. “For many, it’s natural not to have kids or marry at all.”