Scientists have predicted using mathematical models that the ongoing second-wave of COVID-19 pandemic across the country could peak by mid-April. This will be followed by a steep decline in infections by the end of May.
During the first wave of COVID-19 infections across India, the mathematical approach, named SUTRA, predicted that the initial surge of infections in August would peak by September and lower in February 2021.
Scientists, including Manindra Agrawal from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, applied the model to predict the trajectory of the current surge in infections. It was found that the number of daily new infections is likely to peak in mid-April for this ongoing pandemic wave.
First state to peak will be Punjab. Peak coming within 3-4 days. pic.twitter.com/SyP8qHDrNq
— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) April 2, 2021
Scientists predict that in the current wave, the first state to peak could be Punjab in a few days, followed by Maharashtra.
Next should be Maharashtra around 10th April. pic.twitter.com/lXepVItD7p
— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) April 2, 2021
However, the IIT Kanpur professor added that the model’s prediction of the new peak is sensitive to the daily new infections data.
UP stays the course to peak in April second half at around 6K infections/day. pic.twitter.com/oZPa2LhHwU
— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) April 2, 2021
Independent calculations made by other scientists have also predicted that the peak of the ongoing wave of infections could be between mid-April and mid-May.
On Friday, India recorded 81,466 new infections in a span of 24 hours—the highest single-day rise in cases since October 2, 2020, taking the COVID-19 tally of cases to 1,23,03,131.
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