Assam Assembly elections are only a couple of months away and preparations for the elections are in full swing. While the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are quite confident of coming out victorious in the elections, its arch-rival the Assam Pradesh Congress is in shambles after facing heavy defeats in the recently concluded autonomous council polls and also having lost the opposition status in the 126-member Assam Assembly.
The Dilemma of BTC and TAC Elections
The Bodoland Territorial Council and Tiwa Autonomous Council which are considered as the semifinals before the assembly elections were a nightmare for the Assam Congress as the party could not manage to win a single seat. While in BTC the congress had no stronghold from the very beginning but the party’s inability to win a single seat in the TAC polls speak volumes about the national party’s downfall in Assam as the congress had won 15 seats and was the single largest party in the council in 2015.
The exit of ‘Maharathis’
In addition, many important leaders of the party are jumping ships to the ruling BJP and the death of prominent Congress leader and former Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi has left the party without a face before the upcoming elections.
Dance of Alliance
While many experts see this downfall of the Assam Congress due to the internal conflicts going on in within the party, some leaders of the party believe that the alliance with the AIUDF is haunting the party.
“Because of our tie-up with AIUDF, they could not win a single seat and left us in a bad position too. This factor was well utilised by BJP — polarisation of non-Bodo votes and diversion of Muslim votes was their strategy. The Congress state leadership should take a lesson from BTC polls,” said Mariani Congress MLA Rupjyoti Kurmi while speaking to The Print.
Also, the Congress’s plan to form a grand alliance with Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF, Left parties and all other regional forces seem to be sinking as the two new regional parties formed on the backdrop of the anti-CAA agitation Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) led by Lurinjyoti Gogoi, former All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) leader and Raijor Dal led by jailed farmers’ leader Akhil Gogoi have rejected the offer and are likely to forge an alliance among themselves to contest the Assembly elections.
What AJP President Lurinjyoti Gogoi said:
Since the beginning, our stand is clear: we will try to unite all regional forces and maintain distance from the national parties. We are firm on this and so we have decided to form an alliance with Raijor Dal. An agreement in this regards will be signed very soon.
This development can prove to be a roadblock for the Congress to enter Dispur as the assembly elections will now be a three-way battle and the anti-CAA votes will now get divided between the regional alliance and the congress which might eventually go on to benefit the BJP.
In Party Conflicts
Moreover, the party has been rocked hard by many internal conflicts in the state leadership. It is being reported that the party is divided into 3-4 lobbies in the state and many leaders in the party are openly demanding the removal of the Assam Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) President Ripun Bora from his post.
As a matter of fact, All India Congress Committee (AICC) General Secretary Bhupen Borah while speaking exclusively to headline8 admitted that there is conflict within the party.
“There is groupism in every political party. It is well-known that Assam BJP also has many conflicts within the party. Likewise, congress too has its fair share of in-party conflicts. However, how bad the conflicts are, once the high command takes a decision no one within the party will question it,” Bhupen Borah said.
Dispur-Bohut Dur
With that being said, the Assam Congress troubled by the in-party conflicts, pre-alliance issues, the lack of a face to lead the party in the upcoming elections is not in a position to take on the BJP juggernaut alone. It needs to unite the other opposition parties and present a united force against the BJP. However, it has failed to align with them. An alignment with AIUDF may give it an edge in the Barak Valley but will harm it in Upper Assam. Also at a time when the party needs to be focused on winning back the trust of the Assamese people, the party is busy solving internal conflicts this close to the election which is hurting the party’s chances to make a comeback to Dispur.